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Lecture by Professor Omar Hasan Kasule Sr. for Year 2 Semester 2 PPSD Session on Wednesday 12th March 2008
1.0 FUTURISTIC VISIONS- circa 2020
By about 2020 technology will have drastically changed the way people lead and manage. Bookshops may give way to selling books on line and printer may not be needed. Robots will design and construct buildings. Many employees will work at home. Information will be so readily available to the common people that government and business will be completely transparent. Communication will have become so easy that the world will for the first time become a real global village
2.0 FUTUROLOGY
The study of futurology is now very important for leaders. Futurology studies try to predict changes that will occur based on current trends. Methods of futurology are scenario writing, model building, and extrapolation. There are several active institutions of futurology in the US: 2000 Committee at the Hudson Institute, in the UK Mankind 2000, in France Futuriste, and the Muslim Institute of Future Studies in London
3.0 THE CHANGING AND THE STABLE
The basic natural laws do not change. Basic attributes of humans do not change. However there is continuous changes in technology and its applications. There are changes in social organixation. There are also changes in ideology. The ecosystem changes constantly. Culture also changes.
4.0 THE CYCLE OF CIVILIZATIONS
Each civilization has a fixed lifespan. Many factors contribute to the rise and fall of civilisations. Ancient civilisations of Egypt, Babylon, Greece, Rome, and Persia collapsed. The British Empire over which the sun could not set collapsed. The US is the current superpower; a time will come and it also collapses. Future leaders must understand the causes of the rise and fall of civilisations
5.0 CHANGING LEADERSHIP ENVIRONMENT
Many changes will occur in the future leadership environment. There will be lowering of many barriers: information, political and military, cultural and language, distance, and time. Computer technology will support advanced and effective artificial intelligence, expert systems, and decision support systems. The workforce will also change in many ways: scarcity of skills, independent-minded, desire for more satisfaction from work, little loyalty to organisation, attitude of disrespect for authority, a hedonistic lifestyle (pleasure; no pain). The economic system will change due to several factors: a well informed consumer; competition among producers based on creativity in quality of products and efficiency of service; while political / economic spheres will no longer be relevant. The ecosystem degradation will be a concern about the future of life on earth
6.0 CHANGING LEADERSHIP STYLES
1895 1945 1995 2020
directing 100% 75% 50% 10%
coaching 5% 50% 75% 95%
supporting 0% 10% 50% 90%
delegating 10% 40% 75% 90%
NB: The percentages are estimates to illustrate changing trends
7.0 CHANGING LEADERSHIP FUNCTIONS AS A RESULT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
1895 1945 1995 2020
Decision-making 90% 90% 50% 10%
Problem-solving 90% 90% 50% 10%
Strategy and planning 5% 40% 75% 95%
Organizing 80% 50% 40% 10%
Controlling 100% 75% 50% 10%
Evaluation 10% 40% 60% 90%
Communication 10% 40% 70% 90%
Negotiation 10% 50% 80% 95%
Co-ordination 5% 30% 50% 80%
Coaching/training 10% 40% 75% 80%
Motivation 5% 30% 50% 80%
8.0 CHANGING MANAGEMENT STYLE
1895 1945 1995 2020
Authoritative 100% 75% 50% 20%
Participative 0% 40% 70% 95%
9.0 THE HUMAN DIMENSION WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANT
- People vs machines & systems
- Motivation and getting the best out of the worker
- Importance of the individual 80:1-10, 17:70
10.0 CREATIVITY WILL BE THE CRITERION OF BEST LEADERSHIP
- Creativity is the essence of civilizational change (creativity vs fossilization)
- Creativity is looking at issues from different and new perspectives
- Creative thinking is: divergent, lateral, imaginative
- The creative mind is: free un-inhibited, exploratory, prepared
- The creative personality is: dynamic, non-conformist, autonomous
- Creativity is both rational & intuitive
11.0 THE KNOWLEDGE DIMENSION
- Depth & understanding and not only knowing
- Raw data intelligence knowledge wisdom
- Euro-centric paradigms of knowledge are failing
- New paradigms of knowledge: islamisation
- Objectivity of knowledge (al istiqamat)
- Understanding human nature
12.0 THE CULTURAL DIMENSION
- Different communities/societies ?merging into one community?
- Different languages and colors ? merging into one race?
- Technology: transfer vs creation
- Global village vs multi-culturalism
- New cultural paradigms
- The English language: success and failure